What Percentage of Marriages End in Divorce? Examining Divorce Rates

Divorce, the legal dissolution of marriage, is a significant social and demographic phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on individuals, families, and communities. Understanding divorce rates, their trends, and underlying causes is essential for policymakers, researchers, and families navigating this complex process. This report provides an in-depth analysis of divorce rates in the United States, with a specific focus on California and its populous counties—Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego. It also examines the most commonly reported reasons for divorce, drawing on data from authoritative sources like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the U.S. Census Bureau, and academic studies. This analysis reflects the most recent available data as of 2025, offering insights into contemporary family dynamics and their implications.

Methodological Considerations in Measuring Divorce

Accurately measuring divorce rates is challenging due to variations in data collection, definitions, and reporting across jurisdictions. Below are the primary metrics used to assess divorce prevalence, each with its strengths and limitations:

• Crude Divorce Rate: This measures the number of divorces per 1,000 total population in a given year, often sourced from state vital statistics via the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Its simplicity makes it widely used, but it includes non-married individuals (e.g., children) in the denominator, diluting its precision. Additionally, incomplete state reporting—such as California’s exclusion from 2022 national data—can skew results.
• Refined Divorce Rate: This metric, calculated as divorces per 1,000 married women aged 15 and older, focuses on the population at risk (married individuals). Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), it offers a more targeted measure but relies on self-reported data, which may introduce recall errors.
• Percentage Divorced: This reflects the proportion of the adult population (typically aged 15 or 18 and older) currently identifying as divorced, based on ACS data. It captures the cumulative prevalence of divorce rather than annual incidence, making it useful for understanding the stock of divorced individuals but less indicative of recent trends.
• Data Source Variations: Vital statistics (divorce decrees) may undercount due to reporting gaps, while survey data (like ACS) depends on respondent accuracy. These discrepancies necessitate clear specification of the metric used when discussing divorce rates.

This report primarily uses CDC/NCHS data for national crude rates, ACS/NCFMR data for refined rates, and ACS estimates for county-level percentages, ensuring clarity in metric application.

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Divorce Rates in the United States

National divorce statistics reveal a long-term decline from historical highs, with variations across metrics and contributing factors shaping trends.

National Divorce Rate

According to the CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System, the crude divorce rate in 2022 was 2.4 divorces per 1,000 population, based on 673,989 divorces across 45 states and the District of Columbia. Notably, California’s data was excluded, limiting direct comparisons. This rate continues a downward trend from 4.0 in 2000, with rates of 3.6–3.7 in the mid-2000s, 2.9 in 2017, and 2.7 in 2019. A dip to 2.3 in 2020, likely due to pandemic-related court closures, was followed by a slight rise to 2.5 in 2021 and stabilization at 2.4 in 2022.

National Divorce Rate per 1,000 Married Women

The National Center for Family & Marriage Research (NCFMR), using ACS data, estimated the refined divorce rate at 14.56 divorces per 1,000 married women aged 15 and older in 2022. This marked a slight increase from the 40-year low of 14.0 in 2020 and 2021, possibly reflecting post-pandemic normalization. Historically, this rate peaked at 22.6 around 1979–1980, nearly quadrupling from 4.1 in 1900, but has declined steadily over the past four decades.

Census Bureau ACS Divorce Rate per 1,000 Women

The ACS also reports a divorce rate for women aged 15 and older, measuring those who divorced in the past 12 months per 1,000 women. In 2022, this rate was 7.1, down from 9.8 in 2012 and over 10.0 in 2008, reinforcing the declining trend across metrics.

Overall Trends and Contributing Factors

The decline in divorce rates is driven by several societal shifts:

• Delayed Marriage: Millennials and younger generations marry later, with greater emotional and financial maturity reducing divorce risk. Marrying after age 25 lowers divorce likelihood by 24%.
• Increased Education: Higher education, particularly college degrees, correlates with a 30% lower divorce risk, reflecting better communication and financial stability.
• Cohabitation: Premarital cohabitation may filter out less compatible relationships, though it carries a 40% higher divorce risk for those who marry.
• Declining Marriage Rates: The national marriage rate fell from 8.2 per 1,000 population in 2000 to 6.2 in 2022, reducing the pool of potential divorces.

Despite declining annual rates, lifetime divorce probabilities remain significant: 41–50% of first marriages, 60% of second, and 73% of third marriages may end in divorce. About 34% of ever-married women and 33% of ever-married men aged 20+ have experienced divorce.

Divorce Rates in California

California’s divorce statistics are complicated by its exclusion from some national reports and varying data sources, but available metrics indicate a relatively low divorce rate.

California State Divorce Rate

The CDC’s 2022 crude divorce rate (2.4 per 1,000) excluded California, and state-level CDC data for 2019–2022 lists no rate for the state. However, the ACS reports California’s 2022 divorce rate as 6.0 per 1,000 women aged 15 and older, down from higher rates in 2012. In 2021, 8.9% of Californians aged 15+ were divorced (10.5% women, 7.1% men), a decline from 9.8% in 2014. Other estimates include 5.88 per 1,000 female residents in 2021 and 7.45% in 2023, though definitions vary. California consistently ranks among states with the lowest divorce rates, with its 2022 ACS rate (6.0) below the national average (7.1).

Factors Influencing California Divorce Rates

California’s divorce patterns reflect national trends and state-specific dynamics:

• High Cost of Living: Financial stress from California’s expensive housing and lifestyle can strain marriages, though economic constraints may also delay divorce by making separate households unaffordable.
• Career Pressures: Demanding careers, especially in tech-heavy or urban areas, can exacerbate work-life balance issues, contributing to marital tension.
• Cultural Diversity: Divorce rates vary by ethnicity, with Black residents at 12%, White at 11.2%, Hispanic/Latino at 6.8%, and Asian at 5.8% in 2021, reflecting cultural and socio-economic differences.
• No-Fault Divorce: California’s no-fault system, requiring only “irreconcilable differences,” simplifies divorce but hasn’t led to higher rates compared to other states. Its community property laws mandate a 50/50 asset split, influencing financial negotiations.

Divorce Statistics in Select Southern California Counties

County-level divorce rate data is limited, with ACS estimates of the percentage divorced (aged 15+) providing the most consistent metric for 2021:

• Los Angeles County: 8.2% divorced, the lowest among the five counties, possibly due to diverse socio-economic conditions. Average annual divorce rate (filings-based, FY16-17 to FY20-21): 3.03.
• Orange County: 9.2% divorced, slightly above the state average (8.9%). Claims of 72% of marriages ending in divorce are unsubstantiated; ACS data and an average annual rate of 3.08 suggest moderate prevalence. High living costs and career pressures are cited as factors.
• Riverside County: 9.3% divorced (8.6% men, 11.3% women). Claims of 60% of marriages ending are questionable; the annual rate is 3.36. Economic challenges like housing costs may contribute.
• San Bernardino County: 9.5% divorced, with an annual rate of 3.49, reflecting moderate divorce prevalence.
• San Diego County: 9.9% divorced, the highest among the five, with an annual rate of 3.48. Factors may include urban pressures and military presence.

These percentages (8.2%–9.9%) align closely with the state’s 8.9%, contradicting exaggerated claims of exceptionally high divorce rates in counties like Orange or Riverside. The ACS metric reflects the stock of divorced individuals, not annual divorce incidence, limiting direct comparisons to national rates.

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Leading Causes of Divorce in the United States

Divorce reasons are subjective, often interconnected, and drawn from self-reported surveys. Key studies, including Forbes Advisor and CDFA surveys, highlight consistent themes:

Core Reasons Consistently Identified

• Lack of Commitment: Cited by 75% in one study, 73% in another, and 23% in Forbes, this reflects a perceived erosion of dedication, often linked to other issues like infidelity or communication breakdowns.
• Infidelity/Extramarital Affairs: Reported by 60% in one study, 55% in another, 34% in Forbes, and 28% by CDFAs, infidelity often serves as a “final straw,” though partners may disagree on its role (31% agreement).
• Conflict/Arguing: Noted by 57.7% in one study, 56% in another, and 31% in Forbes, excessive conflict stems from poor communication, with specific disputes over careers (46%), parenting (43%), or household labor (43%).
• Financial Problems/Money Issues: Cited by 24% in Forbes and 22% by CDFAs, financial stress—disagreements over spending, debt, or goals—reflects deeper issues of trust and power. Couples arguing weekly about money are 30% more likely to divorce.

Other Frequently Mentioned Causes

• Marrying Too Young/Lack of Preparation: Cited by 46%, younger marriages face higher risks due to immaturity or unrealistic expectations.
• Substance Abuse/Addiction: A “final straw” for some, addiction erodes trust and finances, significantly contributing to divorce.
• Domestic Violence/Abuse: Reported by 25%, abuse is a critical factor, especially in high-conflict cases, prompting protective divorces.
• Incompatibility/Growing Apart: Noted by 43% by CDFAs and 31% in Forbes, this captures diverging values or goals, often masking deeper issues.
• Lack of Intimacy: Cited by 31% in Forbes, declining emotional or physical closeness strains relationships.
• Lack of Family Support: Ranked highest (43%) in Forbes, lack of emotional or practical support from family/friends undermines marriages.
• Parenting Differences: Noted by 20% in Forbes and 43% as a conflict area, disagreements over child-rearing contribute to marital tension.

These causes often overlap—financial stress fuels conflict, lack of commitment may lead to infidelity, and poor communication exacerbates all issues. Subjective attribution of blame and the use of broad terms like “incompatibility” complicate analysis, with reasons varying by marriage duration.

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Conclusion and Implications

This analysis highlights key insights into divorce rates and their causes:

• Declining Trends: U.S. divorce rates have declined since the 1980 peak (crude: 2.4 per 1,000 in 2022; refined: 14.56 per 1,000 married women), driven by delayed marriage, education, cohabitation, and fewer marriages. California’s rate (6.0 per 1,000 women in 2022) is below the national average.
• County-Level Data: Los Angeles (8.2%), Orange (9.2%), Riverside (9.3%), San Bernardino (9.5%), and San Diego (9.9%) show modest divorce prevalence, contradicting claims of 60–72% rates in some counties.
• Core Causes: Lack of commitment, infidelity, conflict, and financial stress dominate, with secondary factors like abuse, incompatibility, and lack of family support. Causes are interconnected and subjective.
• Implications:
  • Data Needs: Standardized county-level rate reporting and inclusion of states like California in national statistics are critical for accurate tracking.
  • Interventions: Premarital education, couples counseling, and support for substance abuse or domestic violence can address key divorce drivers.
  • Legal/Therapeutic Practice: Recognizing the complexity of divorce reasons aids mediation and counseling, especially in no-fault states like California.
  • Individual Awareness: Understanding stability factors (e.g., later marriage) and risks (e.g., financial stress) can guide couples toward stronger unions.

Future research should explore the nuances of “incompatibility” and track longitudinal divorce probabilities to assess if lower annual rates reduce lifetime risks.

Need Help Navigating Divorce? Contact Reel Fathers Rights APC Today

Facing divorce in Southern California? Reel Fathers Rights APC is here to support you. Our experienced Family Law attorneys understand the emotional and legal challenges of family court, particularly for men and their families. We’re committed to easing your burden, allowing you to focus on what matters most. Call us at 951-800-3390 or schedule a consultation online to learn how we can guide you through property division, custody, spousal support, or other divorce complexities. Take the first step toward a fair resolution today.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Consult a qualified attorney for personalized guidance.

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